Record Keeping

Money (Mis) Management

Money (Mis) Management Part 2

Psychology Of Punting

Barrier Trials: Trial tease or future star?

What is unit betting?

Gear changes explained

Speed maps: How important are they?

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Speed maps: How important are they?

Speed maps are used to predict the running positions of each horse in the field. From that, they are used to assess the likely tempo of the race. Both these factors; position in run and tempo, go hand in hand and are a critical part of form analysis. 


Optimal speed maps rely on accurate forecast of the opening stages of a race, from the moment the gates open till runners have found their settling position. The early stages of a race are crucial and will guide you to how the race is most likely pan out. 


There are many factors to consider in making up a speed map and those that apply relevant variables in establishing their maps will be in a better position to assess and conclude an outcome for said race. 


Some variables to consider:


-Horses gate speed - speed rating

-Barrier draw

-Distance

-Track (open, tight etc)

-Stage in prep 

-Jockey

-Trainer

-Other runners 

-COT (change of tactics)


As you can see, it’s not as simple as saying ‘this horse leads’ just because it lead last start. There are many other questions posed before you can conclude where each runner will get to. 


The more scenarios you present yourself with, the less likely you are going to establish an accurate map and therefore the likelihood of that race being a betting opportunity has dwindled. 


It should be noted; you will never get your map 100% accurate all of the time. Trainers, Jockeys, Jockey managers and so on are all trying to forecast the race as much as you, the punter, are trying to. A good rule of thumb, map to what you ‘expect’ them to do, not what you ‘hope’ they will do. 


Speed mapping is the first thing I do before getting into individual form of each runner. Once I have established maps, I have a good base to work with. It is my reference point to each runner and answers questions without ambiguity. 


Every analyst is different in how they compose their maps. I am a visual person, so I will have them drawn out using speed ratings and the above mentioned variables. Once I have them drawn out, I will constantly refer back whilst going through the form of each runner. 


Author: Adam Curkpatrick


Twitter: @adamcurkpatrick



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