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AFL Round 9 Preview & Tips

3 months ago

AFL Round 9

Wednesday 12th May, 2021

By Top Rankine


It’s probably one of the toughest times of the season to find value in the markets with the entire footy world having seen enough to form some educated views. For that reason, we’ll keep it very simple here and play it safe with our same game multis. Later in the year, I’d expect to find value with more injuries and more opportunities for those unheralded players. Where I think we can do well is the cross game multis. There’s some good individual value across the games, so we’ll hope to land some winning combinations!

 

Round 9 Cross Game Multis (17 Unit Strategy)

 

Multi #1 (4 units @ $4.30)

o   Jack Ziebell 25+ @ 1.22

o   Isaac Cumming 20+ @ 1.50

o   Travis Boak 25+ @ 1.40

o   Darcy Parish 25+ @ 1.40

o   Ed Langdon 20+ @ 1.20


Multi #2 (3 units @ $3.67)

o   Dougal Howard 15+ @ 1.45

o   Jake Lloyd 25+ @ 1.33

o   Jack Scrimshaw 20+ @ 1.36

o   Darcy Parish 25+ @ 1.40

 

Multi #3 (3 units @ $4.39)

o   Geelong win @ 1.38

o   Tom Phillips 20+ @ 1.57

o   Travis Boak 25+ @ 1.40

o   Dom Sheed 25+ @ 1.45

 

Multi #4 (3 units @ $5.42)

o   Jack Scrimshaw 20+ @ 1.36

o   Isaac Cumming 20+ @ 1.50

o   Robbie Gray 1+ @ 1.40

o   Carlton +22.5 @ 1.90


Multi #5 (2 units @ $7.67)

o   Dougal Howard 15+ @ 1.45

o   Sydney 1-39 @ 2.10

o   Travis Boak 25+ @ 1.40

o   Caleb Serong 20+ @ 1.50

o   Ed Langdon 20+ @ 1.20

 

Multi #6 (2 units @ $7.73)

o   Geelong win @ 1.38

o   Jake Lloyd 25+ @ 1.33

o   Richmond win @ 1.53

o   Carlton +22.5 @ 1.90

o   Dom Sheed 25+ @ 1.45

 

 

 

St Kilda v Geelong (4 Unit Strategy)

I have no reason to trust St Kilda after two wins against average opposition. I’ll keep backing Dougal Howard as he gets a large number of kick ins and Mitch Duncan has been very consistent as Geelong’s number one midfielder.

Same Game Multi #1 (4 units @ $2.80)

o   Geelong win @ 1.38

o   Dougal Howard 15+ @ 1.45

o   Mitch Duncan 25+ @ 1.36


BEST BET:

o   Dougal Howard 15+ @ 1.45

 

 

 

Sydney v Collingwood (4 Unit Strategy)

Given Collingwood’s struggles, I think Sydney are great value at 1-39 here. Jake Lloyd has been consistent without having huge numbers and I think we’ll see Oliver Florent bounce back after a quiet outing last weekend.

Same Game Multi #1 (4 units @ $4.00)

o   Sydney 1-39 @ 2.10

o   Oliver Florent 20+ @ 1.45

o   Jake Lloyd 25+ @ 1.33


BEST BET:

o   Oliver Florent 20+ @ 1.45

 

 

 

Hawthorn v North Melbourne (4 Unit Strategy)

There’s plenty of ball winners playing here, so picking out some favourites was tricky. Jack Scrimshaw has been flourishing with increased responsibility this season and I’ll keep backing in Tom Phillips who has a tendency for just crossing the 20+ mark late in games.

Same Game Multi #1 (4 units @ 3.40)

o   Jack Ziebell 25+ @ 1.22

o   Jack Scrimshaw 20+ @ 1.36

o   Jarman Impey 20+ @ 1.30

o   Tom Phillips 20+ @ 1.57


BEST BET:

o   Jack Scrimshaw 20+ @ 1.36



 

Gold Coast v Brisbane (3 Unit Strategy)

This wasn’t a game I was as confident in, but there was enough value to be had if Brisbane can win. Hugh McCluggage is continuing to find the football and will be important on the weekend, so I suspect he’ll be around the play most of the game. Izak Rankine should get his opportunities too.

Same Game Multi #1 (3 units @ $4.20)

o   Brisbane 1-39 @ 2.00

o   Hugh McCluggage 25+ @ 1.36

o   Izak Rankine 1+ @ 1.40


BEST BET:

o   Hugh McCluggage 25+ @ 1.36



 

Richmond v GWS (4 Unit Strategy)

Richmond have lost some key players, but GWS are in the same boat. With that in mind, I’ll back the side I think is better - Richmond. I’m thinking GWS will wax the pill around the backline a bit here, so very happy to take Cumming and Ash at 20+ in a combination here.

Same Game Multi #1 (4 units @ $3.60)

o   Richmond win @ 1.53

o   Isaac Cumming 20+ @ 1.50

o   Lachie Ash 20+ @ 1.45


BEST BET:

o   Isaac Cumming 20+ @ 1.50

 

 

 

Port Adelaide v Western Bulldogs (4 Unit Strategy)

Travis Boak excites me at the value. He’s consistent and just keeps finding the ball. Sign me up. Adam Treloar went missing in the last quarter and fell short by the barest of margins last week, which hurt, but I’m giving him one more chance here.

Same Game Multi #1 (4 units @ $3.00)

o   Travis Boak 25+ @ 1.40

o   Adam Treloar 25+ @ 1.40

o   Robbie Gray 1+ @ 1.40


BEST BET:

o   Travis Boak 25+ @ 1.40

 

 

 

Essendon v Fremantle (4 Unit Strategy)

Darcy Parish is entering a very exciting phase of his career as a dominant midfielder. I’m keen to keep backing him in whilst the value remains. David Mundy on the other hand, he just keeps on keeping on. Very happy with this little combination!

Same Game Multi #1 (4 units @ $3.00)

o   Caleb Serong 20+ @ 1.50

o   Darcy Parish 25+ @ 1.40

o   David Mundy 25+ @ 1.36


BEST BET:

o   Darcy Parish 25+ @ 1.40

 

 

 

Melbourne v Carlton (3 Unit Strategy)

Call it a feeling, call it stupidity, call it whatever you want… I think Carlton are a big chance here. The line is generous and as such, I’m very happy to take it. Hopefully I’ve packaged it up with a couple of safer options that can find us a nice little winner.

Same Game Multi #1 (3 units @ $3.40)

o   Carlton +22.5 @ 1.90

o   Ed Langdon 20+ @ 1.20

o   Christian Petracca 25+ @ 1.40


BEST BET:

o   Carlton +22.5 @ 1.90



 

West Coast v Adelaide (3 Unit Strategy)

Not the most exciting game of the round and there wasn’t much in the markets that I found overly appealing. Harry Schoenberg is seeing increased game time, hence the opportunity to find more of the ball. Lachlan Sholl has hardly missed 20+ and Dom Sheed is arguably West Coast’s number one midfielder.

Same Game Multi #1 (3 units @ $3.60)

o   Harry Schoenberg 15+ @ 1.45

o   Lachlan Sholl 20+ @ 1.62

o   Dom Sheed 25+ @ 1.45


BEST BET:

o   Harry Schoenberg 15+ @ 1.45