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1 week ago

 

There’s two games I want a slice of on Sunday (our time), but the lines are a little too hefty to bet outright. Instead, we can shave a few points off each, double our stake and still come away with about the same profit. 

 

Bet: 2U Bills -2.5 / Bucs -2.5 @ 1.80 Sportsbet

 

Colts v Bills… 

 

The Colts allow 7.3 yards per pass attempt and that’s before they lost starting cornerback Rock Yasin. Indy hasn’t picked off a pass in 3 weeks and they’ve given up 300+ yards through the air in 5 straight. It’s also going to be COLD in Buffalo and I don’t trust a 40 year old QB who’s played his career in a dome / California to deal with that. 

 

The Bills rank number 1 in weighted DVOA, which statistically makes them the best team in the league using my favourite metric. They’re on a 6 game SU and a 8 game ATS run. They have the NFL’s hottest passing attack. Their rushing D has stepped up, which will be key against the Colts, who want to run all day.

 

Washington v Bucs…

 

The Washington QB Alex Smith is gimpy with a calf injury and his lead back is also dinged up. Smith hasn’t topped 180 yards in the last 6 games, which won’t get it done against the Bucs scoring machine and their stout D. Although Washington have a top 3 defence, they’re ranked 26th in total offence. Against top 15 efficiency offences this year the Skins are 0-5 ATS and SU. 

 

The Bucs have found their mojo in recent weeks and have averaged 37 points over the last 4 games. They have the number one rush defence in the league and a fine pass defence. Against a team that really struggles to score but is elite defensively, I think the Bucs score enough and their D keeps a lid on things. 

 

Monday playoff games

 

Titans v Ravens

 

The Titans ran all over the Ravens the last time these two teams met. However, the Ravens were missing the key members of their defensive line and also had several COVID-related issues. Their offence will score points and star RB Derrick Henry will get his stats, but it’s on the defensive side of the ball I see them struggling to contain the Ravens. 

 

The Ravens are on fire right now. They’ve won five in a row and won those games by an average of 19.4 points while converting third downs at a league best rate. I expect them to carve up a Titans defence that, to put it kindly, is terrible. Their defence, an elite unit, is finally healthy and should be able to slow the Titans down enough to help cover the field goal. 

 

Bet: 1U Ravens -3.0 @ 1.80 

 

Steelers v Browns

 

This is just so Browns… The NFL’s worst and most cursed franchise makes its first playoff game in 20 years and then loses its head coach to COVID. Stefanski, fave for coach of the year, along with 2 other coaches and 2 players won’t be in the stadium. Nor will star guard Joel Bitonio and star end Olivier Vernon. They haven’t been allowed to practice all week, and needless to say Zoom isn’t ideal for playoff preparation. 

 

On top of COVID, the Browns 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games and 1-5 ATS in their last half dozen in Pittsburgh. Without Bitonio, their #3 rushing attack will struggle against one of the league’s stoutest run defences. They just got pushed to the limit last week by the Steelers backup players, so while it’s a huge achievement they made the playoffs, I think their run ends here. 

 

On the flip side, the Steelers are 7-2 ATS at home in the playoffs under this coach/QB combo and Big Ben is 23-2-1 SU against Cleveland in his career. Ben and all their key players had a week of rest last week and it looked like they fixed some of their offensive issues the week before. 

 

Bet: 1U Steelers -6.0 @ 1.90

 

Multibet: 1U Bills / Bucs / Saints / Steelers @ 2.86 LB