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The Melbourne Review Jun 12

1 month ago

The track was not kind to us Saturday, well, let me rephrase that. If you bet early and you cop a pattern track - it's not kind. If you bet as the day unfolds you can make a killing. My advice in general is to avoid early market betting if you can UNLESS you spot a horse that you think is gross overs, I'm talking a $16 chance you think should be $7. Deductions, patterns, SCR, weather the works - can all cruel an early bet. Be smart, bet on the day when the pros do - don't be conditioned by the bookies who tell us to bet early...this is probably the best realisation I've had in the last five years on the punt, hopefully it resonates.  

THE BEST WIN

RANVEER Race 1 Sandown

This win had more merit to it knowing what I know after the race - and that is that the horse strained a muscle and pulled up quite lame behind soon after the event. Ranveer had the Profiteer form coming into this race, whether he is in that quality of horse remains to be seen but there is definitely more scope for improvement.

HORSES TO FOLLOW

1. SHAKESPEARE (Sandown R2)

The market loved this horse but the track pattern did not. He was in an awful spot near last from the wide gate for 100% of the race and couldn't get into the action at all, he made decent ground without threatening and will be cherry now for a similar race from a better gate next start. If you did you dough Saturday, you will get it back soon. 

2. DIVINE DIOSA / SWEET SIXTEEN / SENSATIONALISATION (Sandown R3)

All three of these fillies were not suited by the way this race was run or by the pattern on the day. Divine Diosa in particular caught my eye and this was her latest good run on rain affected ground, I'd be more than happy to follow her again this prep on a wet deck.

3. BARBIE'S FOX (Sandown R4)

One of few horses to steam home from off the pace on Saturday, Barbie's Fox is a proper little off-season horse, she really caned the line here and looked bloody good in the yard too. Importantly she was $15 - $9.50 at one stage of betting on a day that clearly was favouring leaders - I reckon she's in for a big prep.

4. BEDFORD (Sandown R5)

Another horse that whacked the line from well off the pace and in a race that was not run to suit at all. Stick with him on wet ground, he gets through heavy and soft and he has a real strength about him in that 2000m range - he can win to an Open HCP standard.

5. RELIABLE DUDE (Sandown R7)

Oh my God this horse is TONGUING to win a race in this grade! One of many that was beaten by the pattern but gee he tried his guts out, he kept staying on and finding the line on a day when it was hard to. Stick with him for one more run...hopefully this hasn't taken too much out of him.

THE MARKET SAID...

That Gavin Bedggood was going to have a fat day! Didn't they get right behind SIR KALAHAD and NO EFFORT on the day! What a bloody good story on a day that really didn't have a big highlight horse or runner, I hope some of you got on the Ggoody train and took some cash home.