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The Melbourne Review Sep 12

1 month ago

Luckily the rain didn't hit Flemington as it was expected too - but we still saw a very firm deck early (they were running time!) before rain took the edge off it. The track played fair and even, early on that quick deck it was advantageous to be nearer the speed but that is the case anywhere when leaders are running time. 

WIN OF THE DAY

RACE 5 - THE CHOSEN ONE

Look this is a bit outside of the obvious but take this win at face value - this was a big, big effort for a stayer last seen when 2nd in the Sydney Cup over 3200m, carrying 61.5kg and breaking 23 secs for his last 400m. There's much talk of a local Melbourne Cup winner, I'm not saying the horse is a genuine winning chance but geez, he's probably better than 75% of the local stayers heading to the race and can pick up a tier 2 staying race on the way there. 

HORSES TO FOLLOW

1. R2. Crown Mint

There were a handful of good runs in this race but Crown Mint will go unnoticed by plenty and he is capable of tracking towards those Gothic Stakes / Carbine Club type races at Listed to Group 3 level and making an impact.

2. R3: Arcadia Queen

This run was a dramatic improvement on her Memsie run and proof that she was underdone going into that event. She heads now to the Underwood where she will give Russian Camelot a run for his money - she does most things right, he still does plenty wrong.

3. R7 Harlem

This WFA veteran has now run two really good races back this prep and his grand final will be - wait for it - the Turnbull Stakes, where he has a great record at the track and distance. He's going very well and I'm happy to follow him to that race in a spring that might play to older WFA stalwarts where the 3YO squad are absent.

4. R9 Swats That 

A super return from this fast filly that will be kept to a sprint campaign towards the G1 Coolmore down the straight. She's got super acceleration and we saw it here despite the filly over doing it for the first 300m of her race. This run should knock that freshness out of her - I'll be on next start. 

THE MARKET SAID...

That Schabau was vulnerable. He was $2 out to $2.35 after trading in the red in early markets. I've said it before and I'll say it again, it is very hard for horses resuming from a long injury enforced break to run a smashing race fresh and back it up second-up. He's far from a cooked goose, expect him to bounce back next time.