Record Keeping

Money (Mis) Management

Money (Mis) Management Part 2

Psychology Of Punting

Barrier Trials: Trial tease or future star?

What is unit betting?

Gear changes explained

Speed maps: How important are they?

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The stats behind the Oakleigh Plate

2 years ago

We’ve crunched the numbers and come up with the best hopes for this weekend’s Oakleigh Plate (1110 metres) at Caulfield.

Based purely on stats compiled since 1989 (leaning towards recent history), we have been able to whittle down the chances to a handful by taking into account saddle numbers of past winners, barriers, prices, age, sex, trainer, jockey and recent race (or spell) history.

Numbers

The winningest number in the past 30 years is 5 (Bons Away), and 9 (Booker) with four wins apiece.

Number 3 (Nature Strip) and 6 (Spright) have won three times.

In recent history, no.5 (Bons Away) has won two of the past four editions.

On top: Bons Away and Booker

Barriers

The 10 barrier has been the most successful with four wins. That bodes well for Encryption.

Gates 6 (Bel Sonic) and 11 (Viddora) has housed the winner on three occasions.

Drawn well: Encryption

Age

Three-year-olds are the most successful since ’89, winning 11 times. That suits Encryption and Charge.

Specifically, 3YO colts have saluted seven times. Encryption and Charge fit the bill. (The last to win was Starspangledbanner in 2010).

Age appropriate: Encryption and Charge

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Sex/type

While 3YO colts have proven their success, overall it is the geldings who have claimed the most wins with 11.

Nature Strip, Fell Swoop, Bons Away, Eduardo, Steel Frost, Bel Sonic, Usain Bowler and Vainstream are all gelded.

Males have won 21 of the past 30 Oakleigh Plates while females have won nine.

Gender bias: The geldings

Recent race (or spell) history

First-up after a spell is the most popular lead-in to this G1 sprint, with nine winners taking this path.

Recent history tells us that five of the last seven and seven of the past 12 winners have been first-up, with the average spell 113 days.

That suits Booker perfectly.

Others racing first-up are: Viddora, Spright, Eduardo, I’ll Have A Bit and Steel Frost.

Primed: Booker

Price

Six horses in the $3-4 category have landed the money, but no gallopers land there here.

There have also been six winners at $20 or more, but there are 13 runners that fit the bill so take your pick!

Just three favourites have triumphed since 2005, which isn’t ideal for Nature Strip, but the fave (Russian Revolution) did salute last year.

The average winning price over the past 10 years has been $15, so that some degree suits Viddora ($14 at time of writing).

Nicely priced: Viddora

Trainer(s)

David Hayes has won twice. Hayes/Hayes/Dabernig saddle up Ellicazoom and Fuhryk.

Mathew Ellerton also has two Oakleigh wins to his name. He and Simon Zahra have Booker in this year’s race.

Groundwork guru: Ellicazoom, Fuhryk and Booker

Overall

Booker ticks a few boxes and finds her way on top, just ahead of Bons Away.

Viddora and Encryption are next in line.

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