Money (Mis) Management
Money (Mis) Management Part 2
Psychology Of Punting
Barrier Trials: Trial tease or future star?
What is unit betting?
Gear changes explained
Speed maps: How important are they?
GOLD MEMBER RESULTS
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The stats behind the Oakleigh Plate2 years ago
We’ve crunched the numbers and come up with the best hopes for this weekend’s Oakleigh Plate (1110 metres) at Caulfield.
Based purely on stats compiled since 1989 (leaning towards recent history), we have been able to whittle down the chances to a handful by taking into account saddle numbers of past winners, barriers, prices, age, sex, trainer, jockey and recent race (or spell) history.
The winningest number in the past 30 years is 5 (Bons Away), and 9 (Booker) with four wins apiece.
Number 3 (Nature Strip) and 6 (Spright) have won three times.
In recent history, no.5 (Bons Away) has won two of the past four editions.
On top: Bons Away and Booker
The 10 barrier has been the most successful with four wins. That bodes well for Encryption.
Gates 6 (Bel Sonic) and 11 (Viddora) has housed the winner on three occasions.
Drawn well: Encryption
Three-year-olds are the most successful since ’89, winning 11 times. That suits Encryption and Charge.
Specifically, 3YO colts have saluted seven times. Encryption and Charge fit the bill. (The last to win was Starspangledbanner in 2010).
Age appropriate: Encryption and Charge
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While 3YO colts have proven their success, overall it is the geldings who have claimed the most wins with 11.
Nature Strip, Fell Swoop, Bons Away, Eduardo, Steel Frost, Bel Sonic, Usain Bowler and Vainstream are all gelded.
Males have won 21 of the past 30 Oakleigh Plates while females have won nine.
Gender bias: The geldings
Recent race (or spell) history
First-up after a spell is the most popular lead-in to this G1 sprint, with nine winners taking this path.
Recent history tells us that five of the last seven and seven of the past 12 winners have been first-up, with the average spell 113 days.
That suits Booker perfectly.
Others racing first-up are: Viddora, Spright, Eduardo, I’ll Have A Bit and Steel Frost.
Six horses in the $3-4 category have landed the money, but no gallopers land there here.
There have also been six winners at $20 or more, but there are 13 runners that fit the bill so take your pick!
Just three favourites have triumphed since 2005, which isn’t ideal for Nature Strip, but the fave (Russian Revolution) did salute last year.
The average winning price over the past 10 years has been $15, so that some degree suits Viddora ($14 at time of writing).
Nicely priced: Viddora
David Hayes has won twice. Hayes/Hayes/Dabernig saddle up Ellicazoom and Fuhryk.
Mathew Ellerton also has two Oakleigh wins to his name. He and Simon Zahra have Booker in this year’s race.
Groundwork guru: Ellicazoom, Fuhryk and Booker
Booker ticks a few boxes and finds her way on top, just ahead of Bons Away.
Viddora and Encryption are next in line.
WIN the saddle cloth of 2018 Caulfield Guineas winner The Autumn Sun, signed by trainer Chris Waller and jockey James McDonald!