Record Keeping

Money (Mis) Management

Money (Mis) Management Part 2

Psychology Of Punting

Barrier Trials: Trial tease or future star?

What is unit betting?

Gear changes explained

Speed maps: How important are they?

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USING TRC PREVIEWS

3 weeks ago

 

USING TRC PREVIEWS

 

For metropolitan meetings, TRC analysts will preview each race for said meeting. For country and provincial meetings, TRC analysts will select certain races of interest at said meeting. 

 

The previews are designed for the analyst to break down races and give their opinion on the outcome. Selections are included. 

 

Within the previews, members can expect reasoning and/or validation of the analysts selection/s. 

 

Accompanied with the previews is a confidence level for each race. 

 

50%and lower = BRONZE RACE. This indicates low confidence and a likely no bet race. 

 

55-75%SILVER RACE. This indicates a low to a moderate betting race. This is by far the most common bracket used. 

 

80%and above = GOLD RACE. This indicates a strong betting race. 

 

The confidence level is designed in this format to give members a quick idea of the analysts’ sentiment toward said race. 

 

An example:

 

Confidence65%

 

‘Good speed drawn throughout and expect this is run genuine. I vowed I would never chime in to STORM VOYAGER again until further notice. That stands again today - he has come up the short priced favourite again. KINGSON ($3.7) sets up well to camp on the lead division. He is better placed here back to 1000m and in this grade. Lumped 63kg to beat a field of similar/same caliber two back. Apollo Hope, who he showed a clean set (granted AH had a tougher run - but Kingson was giving him 6kg), has gone on to demolish two subsequent fields. KIROSHIMA ($12/3.6) represents good value. Was a fast finisher behind C&D specialist, Ruby’s Reward before having no luck at 1200m last start. Back in trip suits, drawn to hold a spot right in behind the speed. Selections: 1.9’

 

Using the above preview and confidence level, there are multiple ways you can play this race:

 

  • Back Kingson straight out. 
  • Back Kingson, save Kiroshima 
  • Back Kingson and Kiroshima for an equal result (dutching)
  • Back Kiroshima, save Kingson
  • Back Kiroshima EW
  • Back either or and save with the other in a quinella or exacta

 

Staking is critical and the confidence level gives good indication of the size of the potential outlay on said race. 

 

Using a 100U betting bank (which our Gold staking is based on), 2U (2% of bank) is our max bet. 

 

Given that, with the race rated 65% confidence, we’re not going overboard but we want to try get something out of it. 

 

If 80% + confidence is our max bet (2U) and 50% confidence is a very small or no bet, then 65% hits the middle of those brackets. 

 

Therefore, happy to outlay 1U in this race and break it down like so:

 

0.6U KINGSON WIN $3.7 = 2.22U WIN

0.1U KIROSHIMA WIN $12 = 1.2U WIN

0.3U KIROSHIMA PLC $3.6 = 1.08U WIN

 

That is just one way you can attack it. You can go more conservative; however, we wouldn’t be going more aggressive than this. No truer saying than ‘It’s one long race day’. 

 

The previews leave you to stake said race at your discretion. Everyone is different and the confidence levels are there to help gauge how you would like to play said race. They are a guide (with selections) to use in conjunction with other confirmation tools. Ie, LIVE YARD. 

 

I will post an article with examples of using LIVE YARD shortly.